Board Thread:General Nerf discussion/@comment-38684270-20190811060353/@comment-27306930-20190812024030

There's definitely a pattern to the Nerf pricing lifecycle. I've seen it repeated many times. It's not necessarily a "rule", but it's definitely a pattern.

When blasters are initially released, they are competitively priced against similar blasters. Manufacturers want the initial price to be attractive to prospective buyers. For instance, you can't introduce a new "Silver Edition Jolt" and price it at $59.95. Nobody's going to buy it. You have to competitively price it around 4 to 5 bucks.

Sometimes when a really unique blaster is first introduced (like the Vulcan, Stampede, or Longshot) there's a lot of research to figure out what people would be willing to spend. Often times this price tends to be a little high to capitalize on its novelty. But again, too high and nobody's going to buy it. As a result, new blasters tend to be a little on the expensive side.

Newly released blasters usually have strong sales for several months, and often for an entire season. But then sales start to slow down, inventories build up, and distributors and retailers have surplus inventory they want to get rid of. So the price drops sharply for a period of time, often by 25% or more. Depending on the number of units in the supply chain, this can last a few weeks, a few months, or often an entire sales season.

But at some point the surplus inventory is reduced or depleted, and the price climbs. Often times the price shoots up rapidly and unexpectedly. So one day that "Silver Jolt" will suddenly jump to $12. Reduced production, or outright discontinuation, will keep prices high for a long time. As the availability drops, the price will inch higher and higher.

At some point the secondary markets kicks in. People with used and like-new blasters start reselling them on eBay, Etsy, and Amazon. The prices start to drop, often to the original selling price. And depending on popularity, they either drop off into obscurity, or they skyrocket. For example, try to buy a Titan Missile these days. If you can find one.

A typical example is the Elite XD Stryfe. It was introduced around $20 and was on store shelves for almost a whole year. Then it fell to $15 for a season, then shot up unexpectedly to $30 and finally inched up to a whopping $50. Meanwhile on eBay like-new Stryfes start dropping to $20.

Sorry for the long explanation, but this is a phenomenon. The timing and prices may change, but the cycle remains the same.